I’m a huge NBA fan, but it was easy to fall in love with NCAA basketball a few years ago…about the same time the LA Lakers had to wake their college scouts from a coma. The Lakers, for the first time in a long time, were drafting high (in the draft order, to be clear). And it meant a lot of spoiled Laker fans wanted to know who was actually on the college radar, including me.
Lonzo Ball is Making the 2017 NBA Draft Class Look Pretty Special
Last season seems to have been a particularly good draft class, producing some good rookies for the season we’re currently enjoying. The long term potential looks pretty bright for top picks like Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, and the rest of the fellas (even though Simmons is out for the year…but don’t write him off...one Blake Griffin also got picked 1st overall and missed his entire rookie season with a leg fracture, then came back to be the rookie of the year by a country mile…and a perennial all star).
UCLA PG Lonzo Ball is proving he can flat out WIN GAMES.
From footage of the guys that might be lottery picks in this upcoming draft, there will be many special players. But for me one guy passes “the eye test” with flying colors, and you guessed it, it’s Lonzo Ball.
Like most NCAA greats, this 6’6″ UCLA Bruins point guard annihilated his competition last year in high school (he and his school were each ranked #1 in the nation, btw).
High School to College…Found a Groove?
And from his first game at a much higher level of play at the college level, he looks right at home. And that’s saying a lot for a freshman. Typically there is a huge dropoff when a player goes from being bigger & better than everyone in high school to playing against the big boys in college.
But he looks perfectly natural, not putting up the ridiculous numbers he did in HS, but being in control and still able to affect the game with every aspect of the skill set that made him great in high school.
In these highlights you can see why he was named the Naismith National High School Player of the Year:
He’s fairly tall for a point guard (listed from 6’5″ to 6’7″), but he’s pretty quick like a shorter guard.
He sees the floor like an elite NBA point guard — think Jason Kidd — and drops sick no-look passes & pinpoint full court outlet passes before the defenders have even looked upcourt.
Is Ball a Passer or a Scorer?
Actually, he’s a pure distributor at point guard, but not because he has to be. The kid can flip a switch and score at will.
Here’s what’s crazy to me:
I honestly think he could be drafted in the top 15 based on his scoring ability ALONE (like if he couldn’t dribble & pass as well as he can). But scoring isn’t even his strongest point.
Think about that. He’ll go to the NBA next year and likely be his team’s starting point guard. But for some reason if he ends up on a team with a ridiculous point guard already, they could slide him to the 2 position and he’d still be a menace!
He’s THAT guy…the player who can score pretty damn easily, but gets a kick out of making the defence chase his passes to the open man. If you’re open for a shot, he’ll find you. And this is what makes him such a threat on the court.
Here’s some footage of a recent college game, UCLA vs Texas A&M (Nov. 27, 2016)
He looks a little skinny, but he’s strong & explosive, so no real concerns there. Plus he’ll get bigger. And most NBA point guards aren’t muscle freaks anyway. That’s more of a concern at the 3, 4, & 5 positions, which is why Laker fans are hoping Brandon Ingram puts on a few pounds each year.
Lonzo Ball is not all offence. The dude can grab a board, gets steals nightly, and already blocks shots like a grownass man.
From College to NBA…Too Steep a Learning Curve?
Now that I’ve hyped him up, you might be expecting freakish numbers like 40 points a night or whatever. But college isn’t really like that. And even if other players put up bigger numbers, I’m not really bothered. That’s because, again, he passes the eye test. You watch him play and he just looks natural. Like he’s been playing against division 1 college players for years.
And THAT is how I think he’ll transition into the NBA. He won’t be able to score as easily at the beginning. But he’ll fit right in almost IMMEDIATELY and be able to change games on a nightly basis. I can’t say that about Brandon Ingram, the Lakers’ number 2 overall draft pick this past season, and I like Brandon a lot! He has tremendous upside and will develop well in the league…maybe even later this season. But he’s so skinny and hasn’t immediately found his groove. He will. But it will take a little time, and like most Laker fans, I’m perfectly okay with that.
Ok, But Is He a Superstar?
Too many people expect these 19 year old kids to walk onto the floor & play like HOF’ers because they were lottery picks, then call them “busts” because they don’t immediately produce like a superstar. But remember Kobe’s first season?? If you’re too young to remember, then watch footage or check his stats. He was a ridiculously good kid who could play in the League, but he really struggled early on. It took a couple years to really grow into his greatness.
I’m definitely not saying Lonzo Ball will be as good as Kobe, or anyone in particular. Not many players in the history of basketball get to enjoy a ceiling as high as Kobe’s or LeBron’s. I’m just saying that whenever Ball goes to the NBA, he will very quickly adapt and play grown man basketball very early in his rookie season.
Watch and Decide for Yourself
In this video he doesn’t appear to dominate the game, per se, but he certainly holds his own for a freshman and leads his team to BEAT the #1 ranked Kentucky. (Note he was up against 2 players expected by many to be drafted higher than him, Malik Monk & De’Aaron Fox.)
So Lonzo Ball is Good, So What?
OK, Here Are Some WAY Too Early Predictions for Lonzo Ball (but I’ll stand by ’em):
1) He’ll go in the top 5 of the 2017 draft. He won’t go number one, but would be a risk-free pick at any selection.
2) Players drafted around him will be higher scorers in the NBA, and may even have better NBA careers, but they’ll be bigger risks and he could produce the best all around numbers when you factor in his entire statline & career.
What I mean by that is that out of the more athletic guys that will get picked above or around him in the top 10, one or two will end up superstars and maybe better than him. But which ones? Out of 4 freak college athletes, you’ll likely get a superstar in the NBA, but 1 might be mediocre and the other two will never reach their potential. This guy LB may never be Russell Westbrook, but he’ll be much closer to a superstar than a bust.
3) He’ll win rookie of the year & be legitimately good from the first month of his rookie season. (I’m not actually fussed if he wins it or not; my general theme here is that he’ll hit the ground running, not necessarily be a freak in the league. But because of that, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he’ll be a good candidate for ROTY.)
4) His first start in the NBA he’ll get 15 pts, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block. ….And there’ll be no looking back.
5) He’ll have a long, successful career and be remembered as one of the best players of the exciting 2017 draft class.
You Get WHY He’ll be Great, Right?
You need to know the true reason why I think so much of Lonzo Ball’s transition to the NBA next year.
With so many top college players, their success depends on their athleticism. If they weren’t SO quick, or SO strong, or jumping 6 inches higher than everyone else, they wouldn’t be a top 10 pick in the draft. But so much of their game rides on their physicality. And when they get to the NBA, where 85% of the players are freakishly athletic, they can’t dominate anymore and are forced to develop the rest of their game, which may or may not come along for the ride.
And that’s the key. Lonzo Ball can throw down a hard dunk, even in traffic. But if the size & athleticism in the NBA means he never dunks the ball one time, he’s still gonna score & create extra scoring opportunities for each of his teammates.
Think of Jordan Clarkson. He’s pretty athletic & can throw down a dunk. But he picks his spots & doesn’t rely on his vertical jump. (And Ball’s passing ability will likely be quite a bit better than Clarkson’s).
So…Is Lonzo Ball the Best Player in the 2017 NBA Draft?
It’s early, but right now I think he is. That could change as the season progresses. And I admit it’s already highly debatable. Heck, I don’t even think he’ll be drafted first. I just think he’s showing rare signs of being a sure thing, if there is such a thing.
“But He Has a Weird Shooting Style”
Lonzo definitely has an odd shooting style. He sort of starts it low & swings it left to right, much like Kevin Martin. If this means the longer & more athletic NBA defenders can block his shot, I think he’ll just be more selective and only shoot it when he has sufficient space…and he’s crafty….he’ll create the space! Remember, Kevin Martin had no problem getting off his shot, sometimes averaging 23 pts a night.
He won’t likely become a top scorer in the league. He can score, he’ll put up good numbers, and if he ended up a 20+ a night guy, I wouldn’t be surprized. But he doesn’t NEED to be a high scorer to beat you. He just needs to beat you. And because he has such a good all around game, his skill set will adapt to what’s needed and he’ll win a lot of games.
Time Will Tell
A lot can happen between now and the draft. He might even opt to stay another year at UCLA. But whenever he goes to the NBA, I’m confident any struggles he encounters will be outweighed by the pressure he’ll put on the opposition every night. His dad played in the NFL and has obviously taught Lonzo & his brothers the value of not only winning, but learning, teamwork, and being humble…even when you are better than anyone else on the court.
Keep your eye on this young man. He’s a good all around ball player and I wish him all the best in his basketball career.
I may have a mild case of tunnel vision as I watch more of his highlights than some of the other college standouts (I think that’s because he compels me to want more), so here are some of the other notable college players who also look good for the 2017 draft:
Markelle Fultz (Washington)
Good passing PG, excellent court vision, extremely athletic for the position.
Dennis Smith Jr (NC State)
A 2 way PG who seems to understand the value of all out hussle. Not as tall as these other the others here (I think 6’2″), but long arms and very athletic. Gets compared to Damian Lillard, John Wall, & Russell Westbeast. He mostly reminds me of Eric Bledsoe & Steve Francis. But such physical players tend to wreck their knees, and Smith already tore his ACL in high school. If he can stay healthy, watch out.
De’Aaron Fox (Kentucky)
Good facilitating PG. Only the 2nd player in Kentucky history to put up a triple double.
Malik Monk (Kentucky)
Really smooth guard. I like the comparison to Eddie Jones.